In the wake of the recent revelation that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) had opened a structural investigation into international crimes committed during the Israeli-Hamas conflict in early 2024, many have projected their gravest fears, and greatest hopes, on what an investigation could mean. The RCMP has provided so few details about its probe that speculation could only follow: Who is the RCMP targeting? What crimes are they focusing on? Why did they come public with the investigation now?

In this article, I endeavour to sift through recent speculation and statements in order to clarify what is and isn’t known about the RCMP’s investigation.

What is a structural investigation?

Rather than focusing on specific individuals or events, a structural investigation seeks to cast a wide net and collect evidence on a range of unlawful and criminal activities. In Canada, a structural investigation can be opened into international crimes under the Crimes Against Humanity and War Crimes Act, which allows Canadian authorities to investigate such atrocities even when they are committed abroad, by and against non-citizens of Canada.

The evidence collected can come in the form of witness testimony, documentation, as well as open-source or digital materials, like photographs or videos. Investigators then capture, store and preserve that evidence for potential use in Canadian courts, courts of other states, or international tribunals. 

A common feature of structural investigations is engaging with individuals who have fled to Canada. In this context, it should be noted that it is unclear whether any victims, alleged perpetrators, or witnesses entering the country from Israel or Palestine have been contacted to provide testimony to the RCMP. Moreover, according to the RCMP’s own admission, the “online portal for submissions of information by the public and potential witnesses” is not yet available because of “technical challenges”. The portal will apparently be ready this summer, and the RCMP has said it will publicize it when it comes online. 

The RCMP has also insisted that its structural investigation is not a criminal investigation. This is true, but an effective structural investigation is something of a precursor to a criminal one. For example, a structural investigation might ascertain from victim testimony, videos, and photographs, that a particular armed group was in control of a town during a specific period of time during which a massacre took place. That information can then be used as evidence that helps build a war crimes case if and when a member of that armed group enters Canadian territory or is arrested by another state. The upshot is that a structural investigation is not a criminal investigation but should contribute to them. Otherwise, why collect information on international crimes?

When are structural investigations opened?

Following the revelation that the RCMP had opened a structural investigation, Deborah Lyons, Canada’s Special Envoy on Preserving Holocaust Remembrance and Combatting Antisemitism stated that doing so “is standard procedure by the RCMP for any conflict around the world.” This is not correct.

For the RCMP to open an structural investigation, numerous factors need to be in place. First, there must be serious and credible allegations that international crimes may have been committed in a specific context beyond Canada’s borders. Two, a “nexus” must exist between the theatre in which such crimes have been committed and Canada, by way of, for example, the presence of victims, witnesses or alleged perpetrators in the country or with ties to Canada. Third, there must be a “sizeable community in Canada” (something the RCMP does not define) who are able to provide evidence and testimony. Four, the RCMP must have the operational capacity to initiate the structural investigation, and it must believe that investigating is feasible. While some of factors are (perhaps purposefully) vague, the RCMP insists that the “final decision” to open a structural investigation is “the responsibility of the RCMP,” and that its decision-making is “independent of political influence.”

To date, Canada has opened two other structural investigations, one in Iraq focused on atrocities against the Yazidi people carried out by ISIS between 2014 and 2017. and Ukraine, following Russia’s second invasion in 2022. It is possible that some others are being conducted without public knowledge; after all, it took 18 months for news of the structural investigation into the Israel-Hamas conflict to surface in the public domain. But it is simply untrue that Canada opens structural investigations into armed conflicts as a matter of course. There is no evidence that any such investigations have been opened into other major conflicts such as the ongoing wars in Sudan, Myanmar, or Yemen – even if they should be.

The fact that the Israel-Hamas conflict is subject to a structural investigation is therefore a significant development and a potential accountability game-changer in and of itself.

Why go public now?

Why did it take the RCMP so long  to tell the public, and only after  Toronto Star journalist Ben Mussettrevealed that the agency  had opened a structural investigation? The answer is: nobody knows. 

There are often good reasons to keep investigations into war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide confidential – namely, that the element of surprise and unpredictability can be useful in conducting investigations and apprehending suspected perpetrators. But as Mussett points out, it is unclear why the RCMP and Canadian government officials so openly and loudly celebrated the structural investigation into war crimes taking place in Ukraine, while staying silent about the investigation into the conflict between Israel and Hamas.

While we may not know exactly why the RCMP chose this moment to share information about its investigation, it was not accidental or unintended; the news did not leak, and this kind of revelation requires a degree of political consent and cover.

What is clear is that the RCMP’s revelation came alongside a political shift in Canadian responses to Israeli conduct in Gaza and the West Bank. Along with the United Kingdom and France, in May, the government of Prime Minister Mark Carney called out Israel’s intentional deprivation of food and aid to civilians as well as its threats to depopulate Gaza. It followed that up by issuing sanctions against two Israeli cabinet ministers for their role in instigating settler violence in the West Bank. At the United Nations, Canada also voted in favour of a General Assembly resolution that called for an immediate ceasefire and condemned Israel’s use of starvation and the denial of aid as a weapon of war.

It should be stressed that Prime Minister  Carney recently avoided expressing support for the prosecution of alleged war crimes – including the use of food as a weapon of war – by Israeli forces. But the shift is palpable in Ottawa, as it is in the media, where hitherto quiet voices have decried what they see as genocide in Gaza. Emerging is what physician and author Gabor Maté, whose maternal grandparents were murdered in the Holocaust, describes as “the freeing of the discussion around Gaza”.

Who might be targeted by a structural investigation?

There has been a great deal of speculation about who could be targeted with possible criminal prosecution by the RCMP. Some individuals and institutions appear to be drumming up fear to forestall RCMP action. But the fact is that we do not know who the RCMP might investigate. 

It is notable, in this regard, that the structural investigation appears to be limited to the “Israel-Hamas” conflict. What this suggests, on the face of it at least, is that the investigation is limited to events on Israeli territory and Gaza, thereby excluding the West Bank, where Hamas is not a major player. This also means that war crimes – including the forcible expulsion of Palestinians and the construction of settlements in contravention of the Geneva Conventions – could be excluded from the structural investigation.

Much attention has been paid to the possibility that Canadian-Israeli dual citizens who fought with the Israeli Defence Forces (or still are) could be the focus. Former Canadian Ambassador to Israel from January 2014 to June 2016, Vivian Bercovici, for example, recently stated that: “The fact that the RCMP has clearly decided that dual Canadian-Israelis who served in the IDF may have committed war crimes is concerning.”

It is far from clear that the RCMP has decided anything of the sort. Again, there is no criminal investigation, and structural investigations examine contexts of atrocities, not particular individuals. Moreover, for those who fervently believe that certain actors and individuals have not committed any atrocities, an external, impartial, and independent investigation should welcome. Their protests at such a probe otherwise risks sending the opposite message of their insistence that Israeli conduct in Gaza is lawful.

Others see the RCMP’s structural investigation as an opportunity to target Hamas. The Canadian Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs, for example, said that alleged atrocities committed by Hamas should be investigated, while any investigation into alleged atrocities committed by Israeli nationals – including Israel-Canadians – would ‘distort’ the law and risk fueling antisemitic attacks in Canada. Others suggest, without evidence, that if the RCMP investigates any Israeli wrongdoing, it is because the institution is “antisemitic”.

What is clear is that the RCMP – like any law enforcement agency – should be guided by evidence and not external pressures. Canadian authorities should investigate and, where warranted, prosecute perpetrators without fear or favour and regardless of the ethnicity, religious convictions, or race of any accused. That is the only lawful, just, and moral course of action. 

What outcomes might we see?

Given how little we know about the RCMP’s structural investigation and the extent to which the RCMP seems keen to insist just how little it has done (i.e. no online portal and no criminal investigations in 18 months of work), it is difficult to know what may come of its probe.

Notably, in the three-plus years of Canada’s structural investigation into Ukraine, there have been no prosecutions by Canada of alleged perpetrators of war crimes or crimes against humanity. It may be that Canada has shared evidence it has gathered with Ukrainian authorities (who have prosecuted numerous Russian offenders) or with institutions like the International Criminal Court (ICC).

Even if Canadian authorities do not eventually move to prosecute anyone suspected of committing international crimes in the Israel-Hamas conflict, they could potentially share their information with others, including the ICC. The Court has an open investigation into the situation in Palestine and has issued arrest warrants for Hamas’ (now deceased) leadership as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, on charges of war crimes and crimes against humanity.

At the same time, given Canada’s emphasis on ‘crimmigration’ – the combination of international crimes investigations with immigration remedies in order to keep out or deport suspected perpetrators of atrocities, rather than prosecute them – it can’t be discounted that Canada’s structural investigation is also about keeping people out of the country, more so than prosecuting anyone.

Justice now, or justice denied

Over decades of violence between Isreal and Palestine, there have never been prosecutions take place of those most responsible for the litany of war crimes, crimes against humanity, ethnic cleansing, and genocidal violence. Accountability is needed, not because it is a panacea, but because it can act as an off-ramp and alterative to violence.

In relation to atrocities committed in Gaza, novelist Omar El Akkad has written that, “one day, when it’s safe, when there’s no personal downside to calling a thing what it is, when it’s too late to hold anyone accountable, everyone will have always been against this.” Let us hope that the RCMP’s decision to open a structural investigation into the Israeli-Hamas conflict means that Canada’s role in holding those responsible for war crimes, crimes against humanity, and acts of genocide, doesn’t come too late.

A version of this article was originally published at Open Canada.