It happened. It actually happened. After months of speculation, the International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants in the Ukraine situation, including for President Vladimir Putin. Here’s the announcement from the Court:

Mr Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, born on 7 October 1952, President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Mr Putin bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, (i) for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute), and (ii) for his failure to exercise control properly over civilian and military subordinates who committed the acts, or allowed for their commission, and who were under his effective authority and control, pursuant to superior responsibility (article 28(b) of the Rome Statute).

Ms Maria Alekseyevna Lvova-Belova, born on 25 October 1984, Commissioner for Children’s Rights in the Office of the  President of the Russian Federation, is allegedly responsible for the war crime of unlawful deportation of population (children) and that of unlawful transfer of population (children) from occupied areas of Ukraine to the Russian Federation (under articles 8(2)(a)(vii) and 8(2)(b)(viii) of the Rome Statute). The crimes were allegedly committed in Ukrainian occupied territory at least from 24 February 2022. There are reasonable grounds to believe that Ms Lvova-Belova bears individual criminal responsibility for the aforementioned crimes, for having committed the acts directly, jointly with others and/or through others (article 25(3)(a) of the Rome Statute).

Some quick reflections:

More than anything this is a significant moment for victims and survivors in Ukraine, especially the children and families of children who have been illegally transferred and deported to Russia. After years of largely being neglected and ignored, an international organization has stepped up to the plate and done what it could, for now, to stand in solitary with victims and survivors of war crimes in Ukraine. If the warrant against Putin is any kind of victory, it is first and foremost a victory of the Ukrainian people.

This is a historical moment for the ICC and for global politics, no doubt among the biggest developments in the Court’s history and indeed the history of international criminal law. This is the first time that the ICC has issued an arrest warrant for any citizens of the Permanent 5 at the United Nations Security Council (the United Kingdom, France, China, Russia and the U.S.). I think (and I hope) that this development will matter to those states – including those in the ‘Global South’ – who may have little interest in the ICC but have always, and rightly, been bothered by the impunity enjoyed by the world’s most powerful states and the P5 in particular. What this development undoubtedly also means it that for the foreseeable future, perhaps even decades, there will be no Security Council referrals of situations to the ICC.

It is unclear how the Kremlin will react to the ICC’s warrants. Putin and his coterie – like other autocrats and despots – have been more concerned with their assets being seized and sold than international bodies like the ICC investigating their crimes. But there is every reason to believe that Putin and his team will find the warrant against the Russian President bothersome and frustrating. That being said, unlike other states that have been in the cross-hairs of the Court – like Israel and the U.S. – that sought to actively undermine the ICC, Russia has adopted a policy that the Court effectively does not exist in stating it does not recognize the Court. This is of course nonsense: Russia was previously a signatory of the Rome Statute and referred the situation in Libya to the ICC in 2011. Whether the warrants issued today change Russia’s approach and the Kremlin becomes more aggressive towards the Court remains to be seen.

It is notable that the Prosecutor did not seek to charge Putin or Lvova-Belova for genocide in relation to the deportation and unlawful transfer of Ukrainian children. Some will find this disappointing. However, it does not mean that it won’t happen later: the Court can add new charges at later date, following additional investigations. Doing so would not be without precedence. In the case of former Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir, the ICC first issued an arrest warrant for him in relation to war crimes and crimes against humanity before later adding a second warrant in relation to genocide in Darfur.

This is no doubt a significant gamble for ICC Prosecutor Karim Khan. In some respects, the clock starts now: the warrant has been issued and the world will now wait with bated breath to see if it results in Putin ends up surrendered to The Hague. It may take weeks, but it may take decades. Khan and the Court must now walk a tight-rope. The warrant is an important and powerful statement to Ukrainian civilian and children that the ICC is firmly on their side. Justice is not just measured only in who ends up in the dock, but also the process of seeking accountability. Today, the Prosecutor and Court said loudly and clearly that civilians and children have experienced horrific harms that have a name: war crimes.

At the same time, the ICC Prosecutor and Court will have almost no influence on whether Putin ends up in The Hague. One of the most clear lessons of the last few years in the world of international criminal law is just how dependent the ICC is on changes in the domestic context of situation countries. The best bet for accountability in Russia, as it is in Myanmar and Sudan, is for political change on the ground to create right conditions for Putin to be surrendered to the ICC. We cannot say whether that will happen or not. In the meantime, Khan and the Court will have to be extremely careful in managing expectations and using sensible and sensitive communications strategies. 

For those that worry that the ICC rushed into issuing these warrants, I think there is little reason to be overly concerned. Yes, this all happened relatively fast and those states that sent the Court and Prosecutor money and resources wanted a return on their ‘investment’ quickly. But I also understand that the evidence behind the warrants is overwhelming and that the investigations were careful and meticulous.

As a final thought, it is worthwhile stressing that for years, there was a great deal of talk about the ICC being in crisis. My own sense is that the Court is sort of always in crisis. But the warrant against Putin today indicates an institution that is in a period of high confident, perhaps more confident than it ever has been.