
Luis Moreno-Ocampo is seeking an arrest warrant for Gaddafi and two others (Photo: AFP)
It looks like the remarkably speedy investigation of the ICC Office of the Prosecutor (OTP) will produce its first request for arrest warrants for Libyan officials tomorrow. The Prosecutor of the ICC will be holding a press conference tomorrow, May 16th 2011. As the press release states:
The Prosecutor will announce his findings following the ongoing investigations of crimes allegedly committed since 15 February 2011 in the situation in Libya.
You can see live streaming of the announcements, in various languages, by choosing from the links here.
It is unlikely that we will see any surprises tomorrow. Given his report to the UN Security Council earlier this month, the Prosecutor will be seeking arrest warrants for three Libya officials “most responsible” for breaches of international criminal law. Luis Moreno-Ocampo has made it clear that, at least amongst this first batch of arrest warrants, no Libyan rebels will be targeted.
Interestingly, Julian Borger reports that there has been a game of tattletale going on: senior members of Gaddafi’s regime have apparently contacted the ICC in order to apportion blame on each other for war crimes. Moreno-Ocampo has also been quoted as saying that his investigation is so advanced that it is “almost ready for trial.”
Will anything change once the investigation churns out an arrest warrant? The short answer is: yes, absolutely. The divergent effects of investigations in contrast to arrest warrants and indictments remain largely under-explored. Here are some initial thoughts on what an arrest warrant will mean.
First of all, it must be made clear: until an arrest warrant is issued, no member-state is under any legal obligation to arrest Gaddafi. There seems to be a misunderstanding of the obligations that member-states have to the ICC during an investigation. Until the Pre-Trial Chamber issues an indictment, no state has any obligation to detain Gaddafi. The game changes when an arrest warrant comes into play.
An arrest warrant will alter the political landscape as well as shift the political calculations of all actors involved: member-states of the ICC, non-member states, Gaddafi and the Court itself.
For the ICC, the unprecedented speed of the OTP’s investigation is telling. It appears to be, at least in part, the result of a desire to get an arrest warrant issued against Gaddafi before he goes into exile. Another reason for the speed may be the increasing recognition that Gaddafi may be killed by a targeted strike by coalition forces. It serves the interests of the Court to get an arrest warrant before Gaddafi is killed. If he were to die, the investigation into the Libyan leader would stop immediately.
An arrest warrant is permanent. At least theoretically, an investigation can drag on. By virtue of being a process, it can also be suspended if the ICC’s OTP decides prosecuting is not in the interests of justice. However, an arrest warrant, once issued, can only be removed temporarily – if the UN Security Council invokes Article 16 of the ICC Rome Statute to defer a prosecution for up to 12 months. The Council can repeatedly defer a prosecution, but must commit to doing so yearly.
The permanence of arrest warrants is important in its implications for the process of negotiating peace. If Gaddafi thought that, despite the investigation, he had room to manoeuvre, as well as time to wage his war in an attempt to swing the momentum in his favour, he is likely to feel even more squeezed with an arrest warrant. In other words, his flexibility to leave Libya will be severely hampered. This is precisely what the Italian Foreign Minister implied when he declared that once the arrest warrant was issued,
“from that moment on an exit from power or from the country will no longer be imaginable” because “after the arrest warrant is issued all the international community would have legal obligations.”

If an arrest warrant is issued for Gaddafi, it will put a squeeze on those states who would look the other way if he left Libya (Photo: Oli Scarff/Getty)
Will Gaddafi have a harder time finding sanctuary/asylum elsewhere if there is an arrest warrant against him? With an arrest warrant, it would be significantly less likely that a member-state of the ICC would accept him for exile. During earlier phases of negotiations, the US and others actively explored finding a state that would be willing to grant Gaddafi asylum, if he chose to leave Libya, including a member-state. Uganda, a member-state of the ICC, offered itself up as a possible destination for the Libyan leader. With an arrest warrant this option would surely be exhausted. The pressure by the court’s most ardent supporters in the international community as well as by domestic and international human rights groups on member-states considering an offer of asylum to Gaddafi would likely be unbearable. The persistent stream of criticism that human rights groups levy on those who don’t conform can have remarkably powerful effects on the behaviour of states.
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