Starting this week, member-states of the International Criminal Court (ICC) will gather in The Hague for the ICC’s yearly Assembly of States Parties (ASP) conference. This meeting of member-states is shaping up to be one of the most contentious – and important – to date. The reason is simple: the ICC cases against Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto.
Deferral Flops
Last Friday, Kenya, supported by most of the African Union, went to the United Nations Security Council to request a deferral, under Article 16 of the Rome Statute, of the cases against Kenyatta and Ruto. Kenya knew well in advance that a deferral request would fail. Security Council members had outlined their positions regarding a deferral in the days and weeks prior to the vote. The P3 (the US, France and the UK) as well as ICC member-states sitting on the Security Council stated that the Council was the wrong venue to deal with the Kenya cases. They did not want the question of a deferral to come to a vote and reiterated that they believed that the ASP meetings were the proper venue to discuss and deal with the Kenya cases. Still, Kenya went ahead and certainly made a point in having the deferral request voted upon – and fail.
In ensuring that the vote went ahead, Kenya and its African Union partners have transformed what was generally viewed as a battle between themselves and the ICC into a diplomatic row between themselves and ‘Western’ ICC member-states. As an aside, this isn’t a bad thing for the Court. The focus is now squarely on those Security Council states, and especially the P3, who voted not to put a (temporary) halt to the Kenya cases.
A Matter of Diplomacy not Justice
Amazingly if not surprisingly, the Kenya cases now have almost nothing to do with justice. They long ago seized being an attempt to bring justice to the victims of Kenya’s 2007/08 post-election violence. Instead, the cases have morphed into some quirky combination of a diplomatic circus and fast-paced game of legal one-upmanship. It should be repeated: if Kenya had spent half the time it did on identifying and seeking justice mechanisms to deal with the post-election violence than it did seeking to undermine the Court and get African Union states behind it, we would be in a very different situation.
But for the rest of the world, the Kenya cases also represent a potential and looming diplomatic crisis. Even those states who are ICC member-states are scrambling to find a way to bridge their legal obligations stemming from of the Court and their political relationships with Kenyan government. It was telling that not one of the seven ICC member-state that was present on the Security Council for the deferral vote decided to vote against the motion to invoke Article 16. Not wanting to offend Kenya, all abstained. Their vote should be seen as a vote of non-confidence in the motion rather than a vote of confidence in the Court or the Kenya cases.
Those states that have sided with Kenya all along were the only clear winners on Friday. Amongst these, China stands out. Not long after being elected President, Kenyatta visited China and was welcomed with all the honours bestowed to a respected head of state. The Chinese government has consistently made it clear that it would support a deferral and the country voted in favour invoking Article 16. It has also used all of the right diplomatic language and niceties in supporting Kenya’s efforts to delay or terminate the cases. The diplomatic message to Western states from Kenya’s side is clear: we can just as easily look East as we can West and we won’t hesitate to do so.
Western states, as I have written previously, want to avoid the Kenya cases coming to a head. For all the oft-stated reasons (Kenya as a key player in the fight against terrorism, Kenya as a regional economic and political powerhouse, etc.), sustaining diplomatic relations with the Kenyan government is a key priority. These states want to avoid the much-dreaded “moment of non-cooperation”, when Kenyatta decides that he will not show up for a trial hearing and the Court, in response, issues a warrant for his arrest. At that point, normal diplomatic relations will become immensely more difficult. To avoid a diplomatic crisis, Western states have consistently stated that the cases should be examined at the ASP conference. Continue reading


















